How to Evaluate a Player’s Value and Your Risk

Points Per Thousand Strategy

One of the most important things to consider when drafting a player is the points per thousand. This is the difference between the value of the player as drafted and his projected points.

Let’s say you want to take one of the most popular defensive backs in fantasy football—Patrick Mahomes is worth $8,500 and is projected to score 20 points. We would divide his projected points by the price, but remove all the zeros. In our example, that would be 20/8.5=2.35; this sum indicates his points per thousand and represents his true value.

Now let’s compare him to another defensive back who is often taken in online fantasy football leagues—Josh Allen. Let’s say he is worth $6,000 and is projected to score 15 points. Quick math tells us that his true value is 2.5, which doesn't seem like much, but you're saving $2,500, and that money can now be invested in another player.

Don’t Spend All on Star Players

It can be tempting to spend all your money on star players like Tom Brady, who holds multiple NFL records, but that's not always the best strategy. Instead, focus on building a well-rounded fantasy team.

This means taking some risk with cheaper players who have high potential. It also means avoiding overpriced players, which will limit your options down the road. You may still have star players on your team, but you don't want them to make up the majority of your roster.

Avoid the Win

Just because a player had a good week doesn't mean he's worth the draft. In fact, the opposite is often the case. These players are unpredictable and can often be a waste of a pick. Instead, focus on more consistent players. Slow and Steady wins in an online fantasy football league.

Do Your Research

It’s important to do your research before drafting a player. You want to know everything about a player, from their stats to their injury history. The more you know about a player, the better your chances of building a winning team.

Avoid Injuries

In any sport, injuries are always a risk, but in fantasy football, they are especially costly. An injured player can miss weeks or even an entire season, which can ruin your chances of winning. When drafting players, it’s important to avoid those who are injury-prone.

Multiple Team Lineups Strategy

A multiple lineup strategy is often used in daily fantasy sports betting. In addition to the positive expected value that comes from having multiple lineups, there is also the benefit of diversification.

When you have multiple lineups, you are essentially spreading the risk. This is important because no lineup is perfect, and even the best players in the world will have bad days. If you only have one lineup, a bad day can greatly affect your chances of winning. By spreading your risk, you reduce the likelihood of having a bad day, which will reduce your chances of winning big.